A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
