Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
